Current Account Imbalances

CEE Annual Conference, 17-18 December 2012

Bogazici University

Rectorate Conference Hall

Monday, 17 December

09:30-10:00 Registration

10:00  Welcome Note: Ayse Mumcu, Vice Rector of Bogazici University

           Opening Remarks: Refik Erzan, Chair, Bogazici University, Economics / Director, CEE

10:15-11:00 Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants, Ayhan Kose, IMF

11:00-11:30 Coffee Break

Chair: Burak Saltoglu, Bogazici University, Economics / CEE

11:30-12:15 International Transmission of Uncertainty Shocks:The Role of Financial Market Integration, Hande Kucuk, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

12:15-13:00 Trend Shocks, Risk Sharing and Cross-Country Portfolio Holdings, Mustafa Kılınc, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (with Yavuz Arslan and Gursu Keles)

13:00-14:30 Lunch

Chair: Fabio Ghironi, Boston College

14:30-15:15 Not So Demanding: Preference Structure, Firm Behavior and Welfare, Peter Neary, Oxford University (with Monica Mrazova)

15:15-16:00 Trade, Sectoral Reallocation and Adjustment, Kerem Cosar, University of Chicago / CEE

16:00-16:30 Coffee Break

Tim Kehoe, University of Minnesota

16:30-17:15 Market Deregulation and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union, Fabio Ghironi, Boston College (with Matteo Cacciatore and Giuseppe Fiori)

17:15-18:00 Debt and the US Economy, Ayse Imrohoroglu, University of Southern California

18:00-18:30 Coffee Break

18:30-19:30 CEE Lecture: Tim Kehoe, University of Minnesota, A Sudden Stop to the Savings Glut and the Future of the US Economy (with Kim Ruhl and Joe Steinberg)

19:30-22:00 Cocktail Prolonge

Tuesday, 18 December

8:30-10:30 Volatility and Cycles

Chair: Ceyhun Elgin, Boğaziçi University, Economics / Deputy Director, CEE

Forecasting Financial Volatility: A Comparison of High- Frequency-Based Volatility Models, Abdullah Yalama, Eskişehir Osmangazi University / CEE

Is Search Intensity Countercyclical, Semih Tümen, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Shadow Economies over the Business Cycle, Serdar Birinci, Boğaziçi University (with Ceyhun Elgin)

Banking Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility, Süheyla Özyıldırım, Bilkent University (with Zeynep Önder)

Global Imbalances: Is Germany the New China? A Skeptical View, Rajeswari Sengupta, University of Santa Cruz, (with Joshua Aizenman)

10:30 -10:45 Coffee Break

10:45-12:45 Exchange Rate Movements

Chair: Murat Koyuncu, Boğaziçi University, Economics / CEE

Common Movement of the Emerging Market Currencies, Meltem G. Chadwick, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (with Fatih Fazilet, Necati Tekatlı)

Effects of Monetary Shocks on Exchange rate in an Open Economy: Empirical Evidence from India, Rajat Setia, National Institute of Financial Management (with Chandan Sharma) 

Average Treatment Effect of Adopting the Euro, Hüseyin Aytuğ, University of California - Santa Cruz

Which Continuous-Time Model is Realistic for Exchange Rates? Deniz Erdemlioğlu, University of Leuven (with Sebastien Laurent and Christopher J. Neely)

A New Test of Exchange Rate Pass through in a Small -Open Economy: Evidence from Asymmetric ARDL Bounds Approach, Serkan Çiçek, Maltepe University (with Çiğdem Boz)

12:45-13:30 Lunch

13:30-15:30 Trade and Growth

Chair: Tolga Umut Kuzubaş, Boğaziçi University, Economics / Deputy Director, CEE

Determinants of the Trade Balance in the Turkish Economy, Ali Arı, Kırklareli University (with Raif Cergibozan)

Unbalanced Trade, Türkmen Göksel, Ankara University (with Tolga Umut Kuzubaş)

International Trade and Supply Function Competititon, Ayşe Özgür Pehlivan, Bilkent University (with Quang Vuong)

Growth Effects of Inflation under the Presence of Informality, Ceyhun Elgin, Boğaziçi University (with Dila Asfuroğlu)

Can Foreign Savings Substitute Domestic Savings in the Capital Accumulation Process: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis, Aytül Ganioğlu, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (with Cihan Yalçın)

15:30-16:00 Coffee Break

16:00-18:00 Other Open Economy Topics

Chair:  Ozan Hatipoğlu, Boğaziçi University, Economics / CEE

Endogenous Life-Cycle Housing Investment and Portfolio Allocation, Cengiz Tunc, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (with Denis Pelletier)

An Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account in the EU and PIIGS, İdil Uz Akdoğan, Yeditepe University (with Natalya Ketenci and Hatice Kerra Geldi)

Does Bayesian Shrinkage Help to Better Reflect What Happened During the Subprime Crisis? Olfa Kaabia, University of Paris Ouest Nanterre La Defense (with Ilyes Abid and Khaled Guesmi)


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