Macroeconomic and Financial Imbalances in National Economies and the World      

Annual Conference of the Center for Economics and Econometrics (CEE)

19-20  December 2011

Rectorate Conference Hall

Bogazici University

Istanbul, Turkey 

FIRST DAY PROGRAM - Monday, 19 December 2011

First Day Abstracts

09:00-09:20 Registration

09:20-09:30 Welcome Note: Kadri Ozcaldıran, Rector of Bogazici University,

Chair: Refik Erzan, Director, Center for Economics and Econometrics, Bogazici University  

9:30-11:30 Open Economy Macroeconomics

"Short Run versus Long Run Optimal Public Debt/GDP in Emerging and Rich Economies" Mehmet Caner, North Carolina State University, Fritzi Koehler-Geib, World Bank, Tom Grennes, North Carolina State University

“Sources of Liquidity and Liquidity Shortages” Wolf Wagner, Tilburg University, Charles M. Kahn, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

“The Re-Emergence of Purchasing Power Parity in Large Panels” Michael Binder, Goethe University Frankfurt, Christian J. Offermanns, Free University Berlin, Daniel Schneider, Goethe University Frankfurt


11:30-11:45 Coffee Break

11:45-13:00 Financial Markets

Chair: Lokman Gunduz, Central Bank of Turkey

Analyzing Systemic Risk with Financial Networks: An Application During a Financial CrashBurak Saltoglu, Bogazici University, Taylan Yenilmez, Tinbergen Institute

Equilibrium Intermediation and Resource Allocation with a Frictional Credit Market” Christian Bauer, LMU Munich, Jose Rodriguez Mora, University of Edinburgh and CEPR


13:00-14:30 Lunch, Kennedy Lodge

14:30-16:15 Macroeconomic Risk

Chair: Michael Binder, Johan Wolfgang Goethe University 

Sovereign Risk and the Effects of Fiscal Retrenchment in Deep Recessions” Giancarlo Corsetti, University of Cambridge and CEPR, Keith Kuester, FED Philadelphia, Andre Meier, IMF, Gernot J. Muller, University of Bonn and CEPR 

Bank Supervision and Information Content in Bank Stock Price: Global Evidence” Iftekhar Hasan, Fordham University 


16:15-16:45 Coffee Break

16:45-18:00 Business Cycles

Chair: Giancarlo Corsetti, University of Cambridge 

“Trend Shocks, Non-tradable Goods and Exchange Rate” Cagri Akkoyun, Yavuz Arslan and Mustafa Kilinc, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Turkey

“International Business Cycle Connectedness” Kamil Yilmaz, Koc University 


18:00-18:30 Coffee Break

18:30-19:45 Keynote Speech

V. V. Chari, University of Minnesota and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis


20:00-22:00 Cocktail Prolongé, Natuk Birkan Bldng, 2nd Floor


Macroeconomic and Financial Imbalances in National Economies and the World


Tuesday, 20 December 2011

(A) Rectorate Conference Hall


(B) Washburn Hall, Heritage Room (IB 203)



Session A1: Banking and Competition

Chair: Levent Yildiran, Bogazici University

“Banking Competition and the Lending Channel” Meryem Duygun Fethi, University of Leicester , Mohamed Shaban, University of Leicester,  Efthymios G. Tsionas, Athens University of Economics and Business

"Monetary Transmission and Bank Lending Under Currency Board: The Case of Bulgaria, 1999-2011" Didar Erdinc, American University in Bulgaria

“Determinants of Customer Satisfaction in The Turkish Credit Card Market” G. Gulsun Akin and Ahmet Faruk Aysan, Bogazici University, Serap Ozcelik, KPMG, Levent Yildiran,  Bogazici University

Demand, Competition and Welfare Analysis in the Turkish Banking Sector” G. Gulsun Akin, Ahmet Faruk Aysan and Levent Yildiran, Bogazici University, Şebnem İleri, IMKB

"Required Reserves as a Credit Policy Tool” Yasin Mimir, UMD, Enes Sunel and Temel Taskin, Central Bank of Turkey

Session B1: Financial Markets

Chair: Guzin Gulsun Akin, Bogazici University

“Spectral Analysis of Time-Dependent Market-Adjusted Return Correlation Matrix: An analysis of S&P 500 listed firms” Ahmet Duran, Istanbul Technical University

“Optimal Fiscal Policy with Default Option over the Business Cycle” Kagan Parmaksız, Middle East Technical University 

“Product-Market Competition, Corporate Governance and Innovation: Evidence on US-Listed Firms” Mehmet Ugur and Nawar Hashem, University of Greenwich

Subjective Stock Market Expectations and Portfolio Choice” Derya Tas, University of Southampton

“Optimal Information Policy” Yavuz Arslan, Central Bank of Turkey, Research and Monetary Policy Department

10:30-10:45 Coffee Break


Session A2: Growth, Productivity and Employment

Chair: Ceyhun Elgin, Bogazici University

“A New Framework for Output-Unemployment Relationship: Okun’s Law Revisited” Mustafa Ismihan, Atilim University

“Shadow Economy and the Environment” Ceyhun Elgin  and Oguz Oztunali, Bogazici University

“Leisure and the Informal Sector” Ceyhun Elgin and Emekcan Yucel Bogazici University

“Wage-Productivity Gap in OECD Economies: Theory and Evidence from Panel-VAR” Tolga Umut Kuzubas and Ceyhun Elgin, Bogazici University

"Growth and Income Inequality under Progressive Taxation" Murat Koyuncu, Bogazici University, Stephen Turnovsky, University of Washington

Session B2: Macroeconomic Imbalances

Chair: Gokhan Ozertan, Bogazici University

“Characterizing Financial Crises through the Spectrum of High Frequency Data” Mardi Dungey, University of Tasmania and CFAP, University of Cambridge, Jet Holloway, University of Tasmania, Abdullah Yalama Eskisehir Osmangazi University

“Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis: Evidence from Eastern Europe Emerging Markets” Gokhan Karabulut, Istanbul University, Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin, Istanbul Medeniyet University, Giray Gozgor, Dogus University

"Comovements in Corporate Waves” Gonul Colak, Florida State University and Necati Tekatli, Central Bank of Turkey, Research and Monetary Policy Department

“Global Imbalances, Current Account Rebalancing and Exchange Rate Adjustments” Yavuz Arslan, Mustafa Kilinc and M. Ibrahim Turhan, Central Bank of Turkey, Research and Monetary Policy Department

12:45-13:45 Lunch, Kennedy Lodge


Session A3: Financial Risk and Housing

Chair: Ahmet Faruk Aysan, Central Bank of Turkey and Bogazici University

“Bank Rebranding and Depositor Loyalty" Mustafa Disli, Koen Schoors, Iris Vermeir, University of Gent

“Skill-Biased Technological Change and Homeownership” Orhan Erem Atesagaoglu, Alexis Anagnostopoulos and Eva Carceles-Poveda, SUNY, Stony Brook

''The Masquerade Ball of the CEOs and the Mask of Excessive Risk'' Haluk Citci and Eren İnci, Sabanci University

“Analysis of Housing Demand” Ali Coskun, Bogazici University, Orhan Erdem, Istanbul Bilgi University

Session B3: Banking and Regulation

Chair: Tolga Umut Kuzubas, Bogazici University

“Securitization in Turkish Banking System” Ahmet F. Aysan,  Bogazici University, Erick W. Rengifo and Emre Ozsoz, Fordham University

“Towards The Emergence of A New Coordination Mechanism In Banking and Financial Supervision” Deniz Kozanoglu, Université Jean Monnet, Gate Lyon St Etienne

“Exploring the Effect of Regulation Structures On the Before and After Crisis Soundness of Banking Sector: A Cross-Country Perspective” Nihat Gumus,  Istanbul Bilgi University

“Do Remittances Affect Inflation in the Remitting Country?” Ismail Genc and George S. Naufal, American University of Sharjah, Ali Termos, American University of Beirut

“Provincial-Level Economic Governance Quality and FDI: Evidence on Vietnam Using a Spatial Autoregressive Model” Bulent Esiyok and Mehmet Ugur, University of Greenwich

15:45-16:00 Coffee Break


Session B4: Growth, Development and Business Cycles (Washburn Hall, Heritage Room)

Chair: Murat Koyuncu, Bogazici University

“Public Spending, Its Components and Growth” Nihal Bayraktar, Penn State University, Blanca Moreno-Dodson, World Bank

“Credit Decomposition and Business Cycles” Berrak Bahadir, University of Georgia, Inci Gumus, Sabanci University

“Is Informality a Barrier to Financial Development?” Rasim Burak Uras, Tilburg University, Ceyhun Elgin, Bogazici University

“The Role of Governance in International Trade” Mehmet Babacan, University of Istanbul Chamber of Commerce

“Higher Education in a Heterogeneous-Agent Economy: Revisiting the Transatlantic Differences” Orhan Torul, University of Maryland


Session A4: Turkish Economy (Rectorate Conference Hall, 16:00-18:00) 

Chair: Burak Saltoğlu, Bogazici University

“Forecasting of Macro Aggregates in Turkish Economy” Huseyin Kaya, Bahcesehir University, M. Ege Yazgan, Istanbul Bilgi University

“Understanding the Sovereign Credit Ratings of Turkey” Orhan Erdem and Yusuf Varli, Istanbul Bilgi University

“Financial and Real Source of Misalignments in Turkish Lira: Does Good Macroeconomic Governance Matter?” Fuat Erdal and Oner Guncavdi, ITU

“The Determinants of Turkish CDS Price Volatility: Local Or International Oriented?” Huseyin Ozturk and Murat Ertugrul, Hacettepe University and Undersecretariat of Turkish Treasury

“Structural Budget Balance Estimation for Turkish Economy” Umit Ozlale, TOBB, ETU


18:00-18:30 Coffee Break

18:30-19:45 Panel (in Turkish), Rectorate Conference Hall

Global Imbalances and Prospects for Turkish Banking

Chair: Refik Erzan, Director, CEE, Bogazici University

Panelists: Cevdet Akcay, Yapi Kredi Bank, Chief Economist; Kenan Alpdundar, Central Bank of Turkey, Department of Banking and Financial Institutions;  Sertan Ozcan, Vakifbank, Chief Economist; Murat Ulgen, HSBC Turkey, Chief Economist.


19:45-21:00 Farewell Cocktail, Rectorate Conference Hall


Organizing Committee

Ahmet Faruk Aysan, Central Bank of Turkey and Bogazici University

Ali Coskun, Bogazici University

Ceyhun Elgin, Bogazici University

Refik Erzan, Bogazici University (Chair)

Tolga Umut Kuzubas, Bogazici University

Burak Saltoglu, Bogazici University

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